Long Beach’s Peninsula Is More Than a Beach – It’s a Coastal Buffer

Long Beach has been given a warning.

NOAA’s Sept. 10 assessment of El Niño should command our attention. The Climate Prediction Center reports that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.

More remarkably, NOAA estimates a 75% chance that the October-through-December period will reach what it defines as a “historic” threshold – exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events in its record dating to 1950.

That does not mean Long Beach is guaranteed a catastrophic winter. NOAA itself cautions that even an El Niño of this magnitude does not guarantee particular local impacts.

It means we have been warned.

And we should use that warning wisely.

The Long Beach Peninsula has already demonstrated its vulnerability when high tides, powerful waves and coastal erosion occur together. In September, high surf and powerful swells generated by Hurricane Marie, combined with high tides, battered the Peninsula. The city reported significant damage to portions of the bulkhead and pedestrian boardwalk and evacuations of more than 20 addresses between 63rd and 67th Places.

That should not be dismissed as an isolated coastal incident.

The question is not whether anyone can predict the exact storm that will come next.

The question is whether we will strengthen our coastal defenses before the next major event tests them.

The Peninsula is far more than a strip of expensive oceanfront property.

The City of Long Beach describes it quite simply: The Peninsula separates Alamitos Bay from the Pacific Ocean.

That geography matters.

For generations, the Peninsula has been part of the coastal configuration within which Naples, Treasure Island, Marine Stadium, Mother’s Beach, Alamitos Bay Marina and other neighborhoods and facilities have developed.

I think of the Peninsula as a shield. More precisely, it is a geographic and coastal buffer between the open Pacific and Alamitos Bay.

Exactly how much protection it provides to particular locations within the bay – and how that protection might change if the Peninsula were severely eroded – is a question for professional coastal engineers and hydrodynamic modelers.

That distinction is important.

I am not claiming that erosion of the Peninsula will cause Naples or Marina Pacifica to flood.

I am arguing that we should determine what the consequences would be before the Peninsula is severely damaged, rather than afterward.

There is ample reason for concern about erosion.

A U.S. Geological Survey study of the powerful 2015-16 El Niño found unusually high wave energy along the West Coast and substantial beach erosion across California. In Southern California, researchers measured an average shoreline retreat of approximately 9.7 meters across their study transects, although conditions varied greatly from beach to beach.

That does not mean Long Beach will lose 9.7 meters of beach.

It demonstrates that powerful El Niño winters can produce extraordinary coastal forces.

The greatest danger may not be one enormous wave. A more realistic concern is progressive weakening.

Imagine several powerful storms attacking the oceanfront over a period of weeks. The beach becomes narrower. Sand disappears. The berm becomes lower. Waves reach coastal structures more directly. Scour develops.

Then another storm arrives.

A structure that survived the first storm now faces the second with less sand and a smaller margin of protection. That is a scenario – not a forecast. But it is a scenario serious enough to justify advance planning.

The city is already responding. Its planned Alamitos Bay Channel dredging project is expected to place approximately 415,000 cubic yards of beach-ready sand on the Peninsula, extending the beachfront in the area hit hardest by the September surf. The city describes that sand as a needed buffer against wave action and flooding over the boardwalk.

That is encouraging. But it should be the beginning of the discussion, not the end.

Long Beach should treat the condition of the Peninsula’s beach and coastal defenses as an infrastructure and public-safety issue.

No responsible scientist can tell us precisely what this winter will bring.

But uncertainty should not become an excuse for inaction.

The safest time to strengthen a coastal buffer is not after it has failed. It is before it is tested.

Long Beach still has that opportunity. We should use it.

Hayes is a longtime Long Beach resident, an academic research specialist, and credentialed educator of architecture and engineering.