A Look Into LB Flooding Over Time

Low-lying coastal properties in Long Beach risk damage from ocean storms, severe swells, and changing weather patterns. Areas like the Long Beach Peninsula and Naples Island often experience structural damage from events like tropical cyclones and El Niño storms.

Despite these vulnerabilities, property values in these areas continue to rise, driven by a strong waterfront appeal. However, increasing flood insurance premiums and rising sea levels are changing the economic landscape for homeowners.

Long Beach’s oceanographic exposure arises from its low topography and artificial alterations to the marine environment. The Peninsula is a narrow strip of land between the Pacific Ocean and Alamitos Bay, making it prone to storm-driven wave action and back-bay flooding, where elevated tides push seawater into residential areas. Nearby Belmont Shore has similar vulnerabilities to tidal inundation.

Before its development, the Long Beach Peninsula had a natural sand buffer of nearly 100 yards. In the 1940s, the military’s construction of the Long Beach Breakwater altered this sediment transport system, sheltering the Navy and aiding the Port’s expansion. However, the breakwater blocked wave energy needed for sand movement, leading to shoreline erosion that reduced beach width to less than 20 yards in some areas.

A US Army Corps of Engineers study proposed notching or removing parts of the breakwater to restore sand flow. However, it concluded that it would cost nearly $1 billion and threaten critical harbor infrastructure during storm surges.

Historical records indicate that while tsunamis are a hazard along the Pacific Rim, property damage in Long Beach is primarily due to anomalous ocean swells and winter storm surges. Notably, on Sept. 25, 1939, a tropical cyclone named El Cordonazo made landfall between San Pedro and Long Beach, bringing winds of 65 to 75 mph. This storm remains the only tropical cyclone of its kind to hit California directly in the 20th century, resulting in 45 to 93 fatalities, mostly among maritime operators.

The damage totaled about $2 million in 1939 (approximately $43 to $46 million today), destroying 10 beachfront homes, an ocean pier, and severing power lines. This prompted the federal government to establish a dedicated Weather Bureau forecast office in Southern California in February 1940 to enhance storm warnings.

During the winter of 1982-1983, a powerful El Niño caused prolonged atmospheric impacts along the California coastline, resulting in global economic losses over $8 billion. Between January and March 1983, eight major storms hit the coast during high tides, destroying 33 oceanfront homes and damaging about 3,000 residences and 900 businesses. Total damages exceeded $100 million in 1983, over $300 million in current dollars. The storm waves battered the breakwater, flooded streets, moved vehicles, and threw boulders onto walkways.

In August 2014, Hurricane Marie generated high-period swells off the Mexican coast, affecting Long Beach’s coastal structures without making landfall. The waves, reaching 12 to 15 feet, stripped away thousands of cubic yards of sand and created a 15-foot drop from the boardwalk to underlying rocks. This caused significant damage, including harm to the boardwalk, compromised seawalls, the evacuation of 20 homes, and $10 million in damage to the Long Beach Breakwater. One fatal injury related to the storm waves occurred in Malibu.

Recently, in September 2026, another Hurricane Marie generated massive swells hundreds of miles offshore, affecting Long Beach’s coastline without making direct landfall. Amplified by high tides and elevated sea levels from a developing El Niño, the 5- to 12-foot waves overtopped the Peninsula’s emergency sand berms over Labor Day weekend.

The relentless surf washed away enormous volumes of sand, once again leaving a steep 15-foot drop from the boardwalk to the exposed rocks below. This storm surge flooded Ocean Boulevard and threatened the foundations of oceanfront property, causing the evacuation of 19 homes along the coast.

City planning documents show that coastal flooding is shifting from decadal storm shocks to chronic, recurring inundation. The Long Beach Climate Action and Adaptation Plan incorporates sea-level rise projections from the California Ocean Protection Council, forecasting a rise of 6 to 14 inches by 2050, and potentially 1 to 6 feet by the century’s end under high-emissions scenarios.

In the city, areas like Belmont Shore, particularly Bay Shore and Claremont Avenues, are expected to experience chronic flooding by 2030, defined as inundation occurring 26 times a year with tidal cycles. This means tidal water will regularly reach road surfaces and lower building levels.

Predictive flooding data from the US Geological Survey’s Coastal Storm Modeling System refines spatial modeling for local properties. It analyzes 40 operational scenarios and combines sea-level rise projections with storm frequencies.

Modeling indicates that a 10-inch sea-level rise during a 100-year storm event could severely impact 155,000 residents and $32 billion in real estate statewide. In Long Beach, predictive modeling shows 1,983 homes valued at $1.3 billion are at high risk of chronic flooding, potentially displacing 5,136 residents.

In real estate economics, flood risk generally leads to a 7% to 11% price discount for homes in high-risk zones. However, on Long Beach’s coast, properties do not show this discount, with waterfront homes commanding a premium. The city’s median home price is around $890,000. A mid-century modern home on The Colonnade in Naples is listed for over $10.6 million, and active luxury listings on the island often range from $6 million to $8.5 million.

Market analyses show that coastal home buyers in Long Beach have high risk tolerance because of the waterfront lifestyle and neighborhood prestige. Financial institutions are issuing standard 30-year mortgages for these at-risk properties without extra risk premiums, keeping the market liquid. As a result, coastal home values continue to rise alongside broader real estate trends in Long Beach.

However, this stability has implications for city finances, as property tax revenues from high-value coastal homes support local services. Assessments indicate that Long Beach could lose up to 8% of its annual property tax revenue if coastal property values drop due to flooding or damage. A 2019 report estimated the cost to protect shorelines with seawalls over 20 years is $246.3 million.

Coastal property owners face rising holding costs as flood insurance pricing changes. Standard homeowners insurance excludes flood damage, so homeowners must buy separate coverage through private insurers or the federal National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), created in 1968. From 1978 to 2016, the NFIP paid out $52 billion in flood claims, with coastal storms accounting for $38 billion.

Federal flood zone maps classify parts of the Long Beach Peninsula, Naples Island, and Belmont Shore as high-risk areas. Properties are in Zone AE, subject to a 1 percent annual chance of flooding, and Zone VE, coastal high-hazard areas. Property owners with federally backed mortgages in these zones must maintain flood insurance.

Average annual flood insurance premiums in California typically range from $811 to $901, but in Long Beach, they range from $1,133 to $1,677, making it one of the most expensive areas in the state.

In April 2022, federal officials updated flood insurance pricing through Risk Rating 2.0, which replaces static flood maps with individualized risk variables. Rates now depend on factors like ocean distance, building elevation, flood frequency, and replacement costs. Following this change, 73 percent of federal flood insurance policies in California faced premium increases.

Property owners on the Long Beach Peninsula could have seen average costs rise by 103 percent. Federal caps limit annual increases to 18 percent, causing compounding hikes for high-risk coastal properties until premiums reach full actuarial values.

To manage weather threats and coastal erosion, Long Beach employs operational preparedness and recovery protocols. Before storms or high swells, the city issues early warnings via the AlertLongBeach system, notifying low-lying residents.

The main defense is sandbag deployment. Local fire stations keep empty sandbags available year-round. When severe weather is imminent, the city opens sand distribution sites where residents with a Long Beach ID can collect up to 10 sandbags, provided they bring shovels. Residents use these sandbags to block water intrusion at doorways, garages, and low walls.

During storms, public works crews clear storm drain catch basins, verify flood pump stations, and place temporary barriers at flooded intersections. Residents are advised to avoid driving through standing water, stay off sand berms, keep pets indoors, and park vehicles on elevated ground.

After severe weather, recovery procedures focus on public health and structural damage. The city advises avoiding ocean water contact for 72 hours after rainfall of 0.10 inches or more because urban runoff can elevate bacterial counts.

Property owners dealing with flooding conduct cleanup by pumping water from crawlspaces, removing damaged materials to prevent mold, and filing insurance claims through the National Flood Insurance Program. If repair costs equal or exceed 50% of the pre-damage market value, federal regulations require elevating the structure to meet current Base Flood Elevation standards before granting rebuilding permits.

To protect the Peninsula, the City of Long Beach builds temporary sand berms along the beachfront each winter, costing $1,000,000 annually. Officials note that narrowing beaches are leaving almost no room for sand barriers, leading to breaches during high tides and occasional boardwalk flooding.

On Naples Island, public infrastructure projects funded by Mello-Roos taxes approved by local property owners are rebuilding seawalls built in the early 20th century, adding $600 or more to annual property taxes. In Long Beach, new construction must follow the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan checklist, which requires integrating rainfall capture systems, smart surface materials, and flood-resistant foundations.

The California Coastal Commission regulates efforts to install permanent coastal defenses in California under the California Coastal Act. Section 30235 allows seawall construction to protect threatened structures, but regulators often limit permanent armoring to maintain public beach access and natural shoreline processes.

In the 2017 case Lynch v. California Coastal Commission, the California Supreme Court ruled that property owners who build seawalls under emergency permits lose their right to challenge permit conditions in court after construction is complete. This precedent compels coastal property owners in Long Beach to either postpone construction during legal disputes or accept long-term regulatory conditions from state authorities.

For any inquiries or further information, please contact Jose Cervantes at JoseC.Press@pm.me